Oregon Business Association

February 21, 2008

2008 Election Cycle

JUNO – IS SHE THIS YEAR'S SOCCER MOM?
by Ryan Deckert, OBA President

Oscar nominee "Juno" tells the story of a smart, witty 17 year-old girl who battles teen pregnancy and all the challenges life offers a student graduating from high school.

What (you ask) does Juno have to do with "soccer moms"?

Everything. I believe these young voters (18-25 year olds) will be this year's Presidential election prototypical swing voter.   Suburban mothers who carted their children from soccer to school were credited with delivering the Presidency to Bill Clinton.

Eight years later, pollsters told us that “office park dads" would decide whether George Bush would prevail over Al Gore.  They broke his way...and the Presidency went to the Bush.  Those who want to debate the 2000 election (again) are free to do so in the OBA Forum.

Another eight years have passed and we face the question: who is this year’s “swing voter?”  Two candidates have proven they can text, IM and Facebook with Juno and her friends.  One has upped the ante, by showing he can do the impossible – that is inspire them.

Young voters have always liked John McCain. Why?  Because he rolls in the Straight Talk Express.  He ends his speeches with inconvenient truths.  He is, in short, the real deal.  These young voters will label a candidate “typical politician” quicker than you can say swift boat.  They look at John McCain and believe he ends his dinner conversations with a little domestic straight talk – much to his chagrin of his wife and dinner guests.

Barack Obama has made Juno and her peers a central front in his candidacy – he wants to do what the pundits deem impossible – that is to inspire them to turn-out like their parents and grandparents.  From Iowa to Maryland, young voters have responded in record numbers for the man who repeats, “yes, we can.”

Who gets the Juno vote?  Both these candidates have proven they can sway them - unlike any of their rivals.  The challenge for Obama and McCain will be to turn them into “soccer moms” and “office park dads” twenty years ahead of schedule.  Engaging young voters in Oregon and across the country could change the political landscape for years to come.