Oregon Business Association

May 9, 2008

OBA Insiders - Oregon Primary Election

With election day right around the corner, we have asked our political pros - and OBA members - to take a shot at predicting and analyzing the May 20th Oregon Primary.

OBA INSIDERS - TELL US SOMETHING WE DON'T KNOW

Brian Gard - President/CEO, Gard Communications, OBA Board Member and Immediate Past Board Chair

"If the Obama/Clinton race is still in play by the Oregon primary, it will dramatically affect turnout, which in turn will affect a number of important Democrat and nonpartisan races in Oregon. More Democrats will vote and more Obama Democrats will vote and many of the latter will be new voters. The effect of turnout is one of the charms of democracy."

Len Bergstein - President, Northwest Strategies, OBA Board Member

"Oregon's primary will catch national attention -- not because of any unique policy confrontation, but because of the quirkiness of our vote-by-mail system. National media stories will focus on the "party switchers" who received double ballots, the stress on Multnomah County's last-minute shakeup of election officials and the postage stamp dilemma for voters who come up a couple of pennies short after May 12 postal rates rise."

Jack Isselmann - Attorney, Tonkon Torp, LLP

"Despite missing out on some newspaper endorsements and never leading the race in independent polls, House Speaker Jeff Merkley will secure the Democratic nomination for the US Senate by a comfortable margin. Merkley's victory will propel him into a competitive contest with incumbent Gordon Smith who must contend with the fact that substantially more Democrats are forecasted to turnout in November 2008 than in any other election in Smith's career."

Jim Carlson - Executive Director, Oregon Health Care Association

"Technology is dramatically affecting how campaigns are reaching or attempting to reach voters.  While TiVo helps viewers avoid political ads on TV and has diminished the value of television advertising somewhat, the “viral” effect of the internet and online fundraising is helping insurgent campaigns compete.  This is the first election I can recall where the internet has become the primary source of candidate or campaign information for many voters.  I've seen more candidate ads on the internet this election than I have on television."

Dan Lavey - Partner, Gallatin Public Affairs

"Watch for Portland City Commissioner Sam Adams to garner more than 50% of the vote in the May primary eliminating the need for a run-off in the Fall."

Colin Fogarty - Senior Project Manager, Pyramid Communications, Former OPB Correspondent

"Obama clinches the nomination in Oregon, delivering a rousing victory speech in Portland. But Hillary does well in Kentucky, where she declares that she'll soldier on. With all the attention focused on the presidential nomination, few notice Steve Novick squeaks to victory, despite a massive last minute negative campaign by Merkley, and despite a surprise appearance at Merkely's campaign party by Bono."

If you would like to make a prediction of your own or comment on the OBA Insiders, click here to go to our forum page.